🛎 It's New Issue Day For Coinbase 🛎

Shovels not gold for everyone!

Hi Operators 👋,

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Wall Street can no longer hide from the future — their days of making fun of the weird kid Bitcoin are toast, over, ancient history.

Why? Coinbase.

It’s IPO day baby. Well, technically Direct Listing day but tomato tomato.

Coinbase is going public and it is a BEHEMOTH of a company. It’s also the 1st major crypto company to enter the realm of public markets.

Just how big is Coinbase? Let’s check out the numbers from their S-1 filing:

  • $456B lifetime trading volume

  • $90B assets on the platform

  • 1,700 employees

  • $1.8B in Q1 ‘21 revenue (more than the entirety of revenue in 2020)

  • 56 million monthly active users (2x Robinhood’s MAU)

Roll all of this up and what do you get? A $100B valuation. That pegs $COIN as the US’s 8th largest bank.

These stats aren’t stagnant either, Coinbase has posted double and triple digit YoY growth in these categories and expects that trend to continue.

The proof is in the pudding 🍮

Wall Street has poo-poo’ed Bitcoin and crypto since inception.

It’s a bubble, it’s a fraud, it’s tulips, it’s internet drug money…

But the one thing Wall Street can’t ignore is money. Piles and piles of money. $1.8B a quarter to be exact.

Pre-Coinbase, crypto was touted as a space full of internet nerds who were making tons of money that would probably evaporate in a fiery crash.

Now? Crypto revenue has been immortalized in an S-1 filing and that’s a language Wall Street speaks. More importantly, it’s one they can’t ignore.

We’re already in a bull cycle but this has the chance to create the bull market that everyone hates. Every investor and their dog is going to fire up their brokerage account (or call their broker - yikes) and market buy $COIN.

Nobody likes to get left out, the FOMO will be off the charts.

Some may even skip the NASDAQ altogether and buy Bitcoin directly on Coinbase.

Unrestricted airspace 🛫

Crypto’s achilles heel has always been regulated buying.

Institutional allocators, retirement accounts, RIAs, and advisors are all largely prohibited from buying Bitcoin or other digital assets directly.

But $COIN? Ohhh that’s a NASDAQ listed security and well within the mandate of almost every manager on the street.

You better believe if they’re not buying already, their clients are hitting ‘em with the “u up?” texts to make it happen.

Investors have been looking for a shovels in a gold rush play for years and it’s finally here in the form of a publicly listed stock — bombs away for institutions.

Tl;dr

👉 Coinbase is listing today on the NASDAQ trading as $COIN.

👉 It’s a monster and going to get bigger as the crypto bull cycle continues

👉 Institutional allocators can finally get mandate-friendly crypto exposure.

👉 Coinbase will probably crash (servers) again as it has done routinely in the past (this is a big risk for $COIN and one of many reasons they are not my exchange of choice for actual trading).

👉 $COIN is a market maker and ultimately a shovels not gold play.

Forward and upward.


The Portfolio Rundown

With the new quarter comes fresh momentum and the bull market is out in full force. Call it the Coinbase effect or simply good timing, Bitcoin has woken up…

The orange coin has broken its ascending triangle formation to the upside as expected and is making a run towards $70,000.

Most coins are following and some of the majors are up double digits…

The Coinbase listing is coming at a great time for the crypto market. We’ve just exited a dip and started the next leg up. Exposure provided by Coinbase will likely supercharge this next move.

Coinbase does not own much Bitcoin so the company itself isn’t net bullish for crypto, but digital assets are their business and you better believe they’re on-boarding new buyers by the truckload.

In the land of DeFi — Bancor liquidity provider (LP) rewards have been trending downwards and are off 8-12% from where I entered. This is likely due to decreased volume from the bottom of the dip and is expected. Rates should climb as volumes tick up and prices increase.

Overall, the portfolio remains fully allocated and positioned to capitalize on the back half of the bull market. Exciting things have been setting up and we’re in for a wild Q2/Q3.

As a reminder my triggers for selling will be:

  • November 2021 — timing based on the Halving Cycle

  • $100,000 BTC — price target based mainly on the Stock-to-Flow Model (subject to revision)

Curious why? See On Bubbles, Cycles, and Bears.


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Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.


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